Thursday, March 30, 2006

The Really Big Picture

http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2006/prod_033006.html?sid=BAC-TS01

U.S., China and India Growth to Expand World Economy to $100 Trillion by 2020
Study Conducted by Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Shows Personalization, Knowledge Workers and Collaboration Technologies Will Play a Critical Role in Corporate Success

SAN JOSE, Calif., March 30, 2006 - By the year 2020 a new global economic paradigm will emerge defined by the globalization of companies, the increased role of knowledge workers and the personalization of customer experiences as key factors to economic success, according to a study released by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

The definitive study, sponsored by Cisco Systems, projects the rapid continued globalization of the economy with the United States, China and India driving more than half of world's economic growth over the next fifteen years. The study also explores the challenges faced by the economies of Europe and Japan due to aging workforces or relatively lower levels of productivity.

Specifically the study found that tailored customer experiences will play a critical role in economic success. Companies will differentiate themselves and create competitive advantage by creating high touch customer experiences through customization of products and quality of customer services Cisco has found that as production processes and transactions become more commoditized and automated, value with customers lies in hard-to-replicate personal relationships and interactions. These interactions will be heightened by collaboration, high-value services and knowledge workers all enabled by technology.

"This study underscores what we see every day with our customers -The global economy is evolving rapidly as globalization and technology change our industries, our companies and our workforce in ways that we never imagined a decade ago," said Rob Lloyd, Senior Vice President of U.S. and Canada Operations. "Knowledge workers combined with IT can change customer experiences. Companies that can collaborate globally to create the customer experience will win the competitive battleground."

The study's projections of sizeable growth in global economic output despite only a 15 percent increase in workforce also validates the importance that productivity-based interactions will play in economic growth for the next 15 years.

The EIU surveyed 1,656 executives from 100 countries and conducted in-depth interviews with executives, analysts and policy makers in late 2005.

Key findings of the study include:

Economic growth is expected to remain robust over the next 15 years with the United States, China and India accounting for more than 50 percent of all new growth. Overall, global gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at an annualized rate of 3.5 percent.

The US, which will account for 16 percent of the world's economic growth, will continue to outpace other major developed economies between now and 2020. U.S. growth will be driven by its ability to continue to add knowledge workers to its workforce that are strong in skills such as collaboration, communication, decision-making and leadership. In addition, the US will benefit from interaction-based productivity from continued investment and use of information technologies.

By 2020, China's economy measured at purchasing power parity (PPP) exchange rates will be on par with the United States and Asia's overall share of the global economy will rise to 43 percent from 35 percent currently. During this growth period, China is set to have the second largest consumer market and will have the largest tech sector.

471 million net new workers will enter the global workforce, with India accounting for a remarkable 30 percent (142.4 million). China will account for 65 million, with the United States the third-largest contributor with 12.5 million new workers. The EU will experience a growth of 8.4 million workers. The overwhelming majority of new U.S. and EU jobs will be in the service industry.

While price and quality will continue to matter, more than 90 percent of those surveyed believe the importance of the personalization of services will increase dramatically as interactions and customization become vital components of both customer service and worker behavior.

As automation of process becomes more prevalent, companies will increasingly seek competitive advantage by enhancing the productivity and growth of knowledge workers. Among survey respondents, the greatest area for productivity gains is knowledge management. Technology spending will shift to enable knowledge workers to do their jobs better.

The nature of the workforce will continue to change. Two-thirds of executives expect flatter organizations in which independent decision-making and collaborative environments will be the norm. These changes will require a new approach to organizational management and human relations. Customers and suppliers will become more involved in product development, cross-functional and cross border teams will work together more frequently and partnerships with other organizations will proliferate.

While its income per head will lag behind, by 2020 China will be on par with the United States as the leading consumer market. China's share of global consumer spending will nearly triple in the next 15 years. Asia overall will be the largest consumer region. For example, by 2020 Asia is projected to account for 38 percent of all car sales, nearly double current levels.

About the Survey

As mentioned, the EIU surveyed 1,656 executives in over 100 countries. Nearly a third of those surveyed were CEO level. Respondents were spread fairly equally from Asia-Pacific (30 percent), Western and Eastern Europe (34 percent) and North America (27 percent). The Foresight 20/20 study findings can be found at www.cisco.com/go/foresight2020.

About Cisco Systems

Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) is the worldwide leader in networking for the Internet. Information about Cisco can be found at http://www.cisco.com. For ongoing news, please go to http://newsroom.cisco.com

9 Comments:

At March 30, 2006 10:50 AM, Blogger Mike Hu said...

And we in Hawaii will become more and more a part of the greater flow of world development -- rather than cultivating the thinking that it can’t happen here because this is paradise, and paradise can never change. There are still people touting the mantra (even at the university -- which indicates how out of touch they are) that Hawaii must be fifty years behind the times because it is the most geographically isolated place on the planet -- when obviously, we’re one of the most accessible places in the world.

Many on reading such visions of the future, then use it as grist for the argument tht we need to get up to speed by buying into the technologies of the last century (like mass transit systems) rather than pioneering the technologies of the 21st century, which keeping with the theme of this article, would obviously be high-tech, personalized and customized transportation devices.

Such local visionaries are those intrepid leaders still protesting the Afghan/Iraq war as though it were the Vietnam of TWO generations ago -- and wondering why there’s nobody else marching in their parade.

 
At March 30, 2006 11:11 AM, Blogger Mike Hu said...

Mass transportation, mass media, mass education, mass rallies, mass communications -- are all concepts of the past, because of the inherent limitations and strengths of those technologies in their time. But they are not limitations for all times -- and few change with those times. And that is the key to remaining vital and viable -- over time, to be freshly reborn, renewed and reconditioned to the present times, instead of remaining bound to another time that has ceased to exist except in our memories, traditions and habits . That is the problem of dysfunction as well as aging.

Many in Hawaii have never changed over the course of their entire lives -- and that is the reason they get old. But one being constantly reborn to the new, the present, is life itself -- and not just the accumulated memories and thoughts of the past. Eventually those people stop responding to the present until they cease entirely. That is the familiar and common pattern of aging -- which we accept as the normal -- that life is this persistent deterioration over time, with no possibility of regeneration and recharging to a greater vitality.

It’s not good. Is there be another way from that fate? That’s the reason we still live life -- rather than just thinking it can never be any other than every day before. That is the personal thrill of discovery -- of what one’s life will be all about.

 
At March 30, 2006 11:34 AM, Blogger Mike Hu said...

From the transportation standpoint, I think the electric scooter with a seat, is all many people need -- to get where they really want to go, which for many, is off the beaten track. The last thing one wants to do in Hawaii, is only go where everybody else has gone before. That’s particularly true of tourists -- but it’s even more important for those growing up and living in Hawaii all their lives -- to go where they have not gone before. Otherwise, their lives are a well-worn groove, digging their own graves in that way.

The number of people who have only held one job all their lives is probably unprecedented in the experience of life -- and that is not good, providing one with some perspective of life greater than their own tiny, constant, unchanging vision of it. Because of that lack of choice, there can be no perspective -- of the many ways life can be, with all its choices and outcomes. One only knows the sameness and security of that one day like every other in one’s life.

One should know what it means to know job security as well as insecurity; one needs to know what it is to be a student as well as a teacher. One needs to know what it is like to be a minority -- as well as well as the majority. But he needs both, to obtain that balance of viewpoint.

Otherwise, he sees himself only as the victim -- and not the victimizer. He sees himself as the entitled -- and not the benefactor. And that is the fullness of life, the big picture, the wholeness of life.

 
At March 30, 2006 11:39 AM, Blogger Mike Hu said...

One has to learn to deal with the rain -- as well as expect the sun to shine every day!

 
At March 30, 2006 1:59 PM, Anonymous Razib Ahmed said...

Indian economy is growing a lot these days and according to

ADB Preseident, India has the potential to continue this growth for two decades
.
The rise of China and India means that Hawaii will receive more tourists from
these countries. Also, many researchers and scholars from Asia and the Pacific
prefer Hawaii for higher studies.

 
At March 30, 2006 5:05 PM, Blogger Mike Hu said...

The thing that is intriguing about that hegemony is that they are three extremely compatible civilizations.

You go to any Ph.D. program in the country, including and especially science and technology, and they are dominated by the Chinese, Indians and Americans -- and despite the former two's longstanding cultural heritages and legacies, they assimilate into American culture effortlessly.

What they have in common despite flirtations with socialism, communism, and liberalism, is that they are the most inherently capitalistic/democratic societies and personalities in the world.

 
At April 03, 2006 7:36 AM, Blogger Aaron Keogh said...

Just wondering if you'd be interested in bloging / podcasting about Matrixstream's cutting edge video on demand and IPTV Technology ( TV over broadband ). This is a technology that allows the consumer to receive a potential for unlimited VOD / IPTV content up to 1080P in H.264 codec over any broadband connection on a PC Player or set top box for TV ( IMX1020 1080P High definition STB - the world's first 1080P H.264 STB ) If you'd like to see pictures and video's of the this new STB you can go to www.matrixstream.com/presskit . Let us know if your interested.

Yours Truly Aaron Keogh

Tel: 604-291-7727

E-mail: aaron@matrixstream.com

Website: www.matrixstream.com

 
At April 03, 2006 7:36 AM, Blogger Aaron Keogh said...

Just wondering if you'd be interested in bloging / podcasting about Matrixstream's cutting edge video on demand and IPTV Technology ( TV over broadband ). This is a technology that allows the consumer to receive a potential for unlimited VOD / IPTV content up to 1080P in H.264 codec over any broadband connection on a PC Player or set top box for TV ( IMX1020 1080P High definition STB - the world's first 1080P H.264 STB ) If you'd like to see pictures and video's of the this new STB you can go to www.matrixstream.com/presskit . Let us know if your interested.

Yours Truly Aaron Keogh

Tel: 604-291-7727

E-mail: aaron@matrixstream.com

Website: www.matrixstream.com

 
At April 03, 2006 5:08 PM, Blogger Mike Hu said...

Thanks for your comments and emails on the many new possibilities for the original content provider to express themselves.

My niche is basically providing original literary metaphors and expressions -- rather than exploring the full multimedia experience.

That's my competitive advantage and natural ability. I'm aware that the possibilities are endless. I'm sure the whole landscape will be changed shortly, and every person who wants to, will become their own broadcasting network -- just as a blogger is a publication, and all the traditional publications have been subsumed into the new paradigm -- whether they want to be or not.

The greater absorbs the lesser. The superior the inferior. That's the march of progress. Those who think they can stand in its way, will be swept into irrelevance.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home